Beyond Luck – The Psychology of Betting

But betting is not just a matter of luck: the mathematical foundations provided by cognitive psychology make betting both intellectually satisfying and a source of strategic discovery.

Cognitive distortions such as illusions of control (the belief that mortal skill can affect random outcomes) and loss aversion (an inherent tendency to weigh losses more heavily than gains) are thought to play a large part in the propensity to gamble.

Chance and skill

Games of chance require no skill, such as rolling dice or shuffling cards in an unrehearsed manner; games of skill, by comparison, require course knowledge and expertise to impact bet outcomes – such as sports betting or blackjack.

Besides being outside the realm of random luck, psychologically people can also influence their gambling behaviour through the gambler’s fallacy (the idea that the past outcome somehow determines the future outcomes) to chase past ‘luck’ and to fear making losing bets after losing streaks. So, like most other situations, gamblers benefit from developing an emotional control and disciplined mindset to escape that pitfall. And that is what should be cultivated and continue to cultivate.

Emotions

Being able to bet well means applying statistical analysis, synthesising how a team is rolling and accounting for all variables that affect athletic results. It also means keeping your emotions in check so that you don’t engage in both impulse behaviours and behaviours such as pathological gambling: whether you get too excited by your winnings and advancement in the parlay, or get discouraged by your big loses and seek to ‘claw your way back’ – these emotions can have a huge impact on decision-making processes – especially as these emotions can be amplified while sports betting as you get surges of adrenalin with every bet you put on.

Cognitive Reappraisal can help control emotions while betting, de-biasing decision making to avoid regular and huge losses. Should you get a series of losses or unexpected outcomes: reframe them as an opportunity and not a defeat; put all negative feelings to work to foster a constructive action, or take a break to re-energise your mental batteries immediately; with practice, you may also gain more objective and rational decisions, and significantly decrease losses.

Knowledge

Good betting involves the artful and controlled combination of insight and action. Winning means hitting a sweet spot between perceived risk and perceived reward – between valuing the opportunity to take a shot for what it’s worth, and being able to hold firm in the face of uncertainty. Success at this requires not only good emotional self-regulation, but also good gut-level decision-making skills, and, as with all other forms of gambling, good odds-sense. It also requires a recognition of those cognitive biases or emotional affects that might be influencing your line of thinking.

Such dynamics are compounded by sociocultural influences. Advertisements and pop culture romanticise gambling as part and parcel of the entertainment of sporting events, thereby further substantiating that betting is an integral part of sporting entertainment. Social pressure from peers and family might surface and make it difficult for refraining from gambling; however, for some, gambling addiction carves an inevitable path towards jeopardising the welfare of personal and financial health that makes it necessary to unravel its psychological mechanisms to gambling responsibly for a rewarding experience.

Responsibility

Sports betting’s high-intensity emotional environment forces you to assume personal responsibility through monitoring your own activity by setting appropriate betting limits and sticking to them win, lose or draw, researching the markets diligently and in detail, and making informed judgments – essentially, the ability to step outside of moment-to-moment impulses in order to make more successful decisions for complex bets.

Responsible gambling is believed to lower emotional stress, bolster relationships with friends and family members and fend off financial loss while minimising legal risks associated with betting. If gambling becomes problematic, immediate treatment and support services should be sought because compulsive gambling often brings psychological repercussions, such as suicidal thoughts, relational problems, credit card debts – not to mention addiction. Fortunately, there are plenty of resources for addicts; the first is awareness.